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Deal Notes

Deal Notes LMM

Fundless Sponsor

+4

The Margin the Tariff Ate

Sep 1, 2026

•

4 min read

The Margin the Tariff Ate

The Supreme Court erased the biggest tariff regime in modern history, $142B may flow back to the companies that paid it, and most small manufacturers still cannot tell you what their landed costs will be next quarter. Buyers and sellers are both underwriting the fog of war

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Fundless Sponsor

+4

The Second Bite

Aug 26, 2026

•

4 min read

The Second Bite

Rollover equity is the most misunderstood line in a term sheet. Done right, the smaller check can outgrow the bigger one. Done wrong, it is a donation.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Fundless Sponsor

+4

The Truck on the Books

Aug 24, 2026

•

4 min read

The Truck on the Books

Every private company P&L tells two stories. One is about the business. The other is about the life the business paid for. My COO once found $2M of fishing poles.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Fundless Sponsor

+4

The Kitchen Table Vote

Aug 20, 2026

•

4 min read

The Kitchen Table Vote

Every founder deal has two investment committees. One meets in a conference room. The other meets over dinner, and it holds the veto.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Fundless Sponsor

+4

The Re-Trade Usually Starts in the Seller's Own Calendar

Aug 18, 2026

•

5 min read

The Re-Trade Usually Starts in the Seller's Own Calendar

Two weeks before close, the trailing twelve comes back softer than the one everybody signed against. The cause is almost never the market, and owners rarely see it coming because it looks like a full week's work.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Fundless Sponsor

+4

The GM Found Out on a Friday

Aug 13, 2026

•

4 min read

The GM Found Out on a Friday

The seller swore nobody knew. Then a banker hit forward, the GM read every word, and by Wednesday I was pricing a company that had stopped believing its owner.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Fundless Sponsor

+4

The Accountant Said No

Aug 11, 2026

•

4 min read

The Accountant Said No

LOI on the table, agreement in principle, a seller ready to retire. His CPA of 25 years unwound all of it in one Tuesday meeting, and from his chair the advice was sound.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Fundless Sponsor

+4

The First Deal I Lost to a Memory

Aug 6, 2026

•

4 min read

The First Deal I Lost to a Memory

Eight figures, capital at the table, clean earnings. The seller walked over a valuation somebody said out loud in 2019, and I understand why he did.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Fundless Sponsor

+4

Half the Searchers Never Buy Anything

Aug 4, 2026

•

4 min read

Half the Searchers Never Buy Anything

Stanford counted 190 new funds, a $16M median price, and a close rate that fell from 86% to 48%. The reasons apply to everyone in the pond.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Private Equity

+2

What the Customer List Tells You That the Quality of Earnings Never Will

Jul 28, 2026

•

4 min read

What the Customer List Tells You That the Quality of Earnings Never Will

The QoE confirms the revenue was real. Whether it shows up again after you own the company lives in a file some buyers never open.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Fundless Sponsor

+2

When the Suits Show Up

Jun 15, 2026

•

5 min read

When the Suits Show Up

I have hired the top consulting firms to work inside companies I served as operating partner for, and I have watched what they actually deliver. Most of what you pay for, a fundless sponsor can do without writing the check.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

Fundless Sponsor

+2

The Deal That Died

May 26, 2026

•

5 min read

The Deal That Died

One Email. Premium Value. Gone.

Paul Swaney
Paul Swaney

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