Roughly 200 businesses crossed my desk between 2023 and 2026. Two lines in the financials decided more of those looks than any management presentation: gross margin, and whether the revenue has to be won again every year.
A pharmaceutical packaging plant in crisis had a wall of charts, a daily standup in the aisle, and schedule attainment at the top of the board. The number that got it back into service had been stripped out of its own OEE as uncontrollable.
My father was a machinist. When the line went down, a kid rode along to drop off the part. The plant is gone now, 675 jobs with it, but the question I learned in that truck is still on the list every time I walk a plant.
I interviewed the author of the book on speed in March 2025. His data says 95% of companies stall and two thirds of those never get back to growth. The stall is a decision, and somebody is always making it. Inside a hold, that somebody had better be the sponsor.
Between the LOI and the closing table sit 90 days that belong to nobody. Almost half the deals that fail there never officially die. They just stop moving.
Tom Brady played the 28-3 comeback off one laminated page, about 120 calls sorted by situation with the Falcons' tendencies printed beside them. I still get told a customer service desk has too many variables for standard work.
EBITDA has no line for the 22-year-old press that makes 40% of the parts. Owner earnings do. The gap between those two numbers has ended more deals than fraud ever will.
The Supreme Court erased the biggest tariff regime in modern history, $142B may flow back to the companies that paid it, and most small manufacturers still cannot tell you what their landed costs will be next quarter. Buyers and sellers are both underwriting the fog of war
Rollover equity is the most misunderstood line in a term sheet. Done right, the smaller check can outgrow the bigger one. Done wrong, it is a donation.
Every private company P&L tells two stories. One is about the business. The other is about the life the business paid for. My COO once found $2M of fishing poles.
The Re-Trade Usually Starts in the Seller's Own Calendar
Two weeks before close, the trailing twelve comes back softer than the one everybody signed against. The cause is almost never the market, and owners rarely see it coming because it looks like a full week's work.
The seller swore nobody knew. Then a banker hit forward, the GM read every word, and by Wednesday I was pricing a company that had stopped believing its owner.
LOI on the table, agreement in principle, a seller ready to retire. His CPA of 25 years unwound all of it in one Tuesday meeting, and from his chair the advice was sound.
